As the weekend approaches, Houston is experiencing minimal shower and storm coverage, a trend that is expected to shift significantly next week.
Currently, the forecast calls for only a few isolated showers, with a slight increase in rain chances as the week progresses. Today, June 20th, marks a notable point in the hurricane season, with Space City Weather reporting no hurricanes or tropical storms to discuss thus far. This situation stands in stark contrast to recent seasons and is quite refreshing for residents. The last occurrence of a hurricane-free Atlantic before July 1st was back in 2014.
While the Atlantic remains quiet, the Pacific has been rather active, producing five storms this season, with only one, known as Erick, making landfall recently. The sharp contrast between the two oceanic regions can be attributed to prevailing conditions in the Atlantic, particularly dust and wind shear, which suppress tropical development.
The overarching ‘background state’ of the atmosphere plays a crucial role in this year’s hurricane activity. For the first half of June, rising air has created favorable conditions for tropical development over Central America, enabling thunderstorms to flourish. As tropical weather often moves from east to west, this situation has allowed for potential development primarily in the eastern Pacific, while sinking air over Africa has limited cloud formation and moisture across the Caribbean.
Looking ahead, meteorologists predict that while the atmospheric conditions may become slightly more favorable over Africa and the eastern Atlantic by early July, significant changes are not expected in the immediate future. The next 7 to 10 days appear calm, with no forecasts indicating any major shifts in weather patterns. Thus far, the quiet activity in June does not correspond to the storm frequency expected for the remainder of the season.
In summary, while the current weather patterns have not produced any threats, meteorologists stress the importance of being prepared for the ongoing hurricane season.
In the immediate future, today’s weather mirrors yesterday’s conditions, with a similar chance of scattered showers effectively affecting various Houston areas. Conditions have been warm, reaching 95 degrees Fahrenheit, and temperatures are expected to remain consistent for today.
This weekend, the likelihood of rain is projected to decrease slightly, with chances of showers hovering around 15 to 20 percent for both Saturday and Sunday. Sunday may see a marginally higher chance of rainfall compared to Saturday, but overall, the odds for significant precipitation remain low. Maximum temperatures will stay steady, with the mid to low 90s expected, while lows will range from the mid to upper 70s away from coastal areas, and low 80s near the coast.
Looking into next week, Houston’s weather forecasts indicate a notable uptick in rain activity. Daily chances of rain may rise to between 30 and 40 percent or even higher, particularly in the afternoons, with the likelihood of pop-up thunderstorms becoming more common.
The anticipated increase in rainfall is due in part to a high-pressure system positioned over the Appalachian region, which has led to record heat impacting the Eastern U.S. Rather than hindering precipitation, this system is expected to facilitate Gulf moisture influx into Texas. As a result, the amount of atmospheric moisture, or precipitable water, is set to increase by roughly 25 percent or more next week.
Consequently, meteorologists predict that the dominant weather trend for the week will likely consist of more thunderstorms, with overall temperatures decreasing to the low 90s for daytime highs and remaining in the 70s for nighttime lows across the region.
As residents of Houston prepare for the upcoming change in weather, it remains essential to keep an eye on both local forecasts and any emerging hurricane patterns, especially as the season continues to evolve.
image source from：spacecityweather
