President Donald Trump has reiterated his assertions that recent U.S. strikes in Iran have ‘obliterated’ significant nuclear facilities, despite intel assessments suggesting that its nuclear program has only been delayed by a few months.
During a press conference at the NATO summit in the Netherlands, Trump expressed confidence that the conflict between Israel and Iran was resolved, following a sudden ceasefire announcement he made on social media.
While Trump mentioned plans to engage with Iran in the upcoming week, he expressed skepticism about the necessity of reaching a formal agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
He stated, ‘We may sign an agreement,’ but simultaneously emphasized, ‘I don’t think it’s necessary,’ underscoring his belief in the effectiveness of the recent military strikes.
However, regional experts contend that regardless of the extent of damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear facilities, meaningful negotiations must take place to foster a durable peace.
Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow and Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, remarked, ‘This ceasefire, in my view, is going to be very short-lived for both the Israelis and the Americans, unless there is a very serious political strategy.’
Dana Stroul, who served as the Pentagon’s top Middle East official from 2021 to 2023, echoed the urgency of initiating negotiations quickly, calling it ‘absolutely critical.’
Stroul pointed out the unusual nature of the ceasefire approach, highlighting the lack of a formal agreement, defined timelines, or a clear mechanism for addressing potential violations.
The past two weeks have been described as ‘head-spinning’ by experts like Geranmayeh, who note the rapid developments involving Israel, Iran, and the United States.
The turbulence began with planned nuclear discussions between the U.S. and Iran, which were put on hold when Israel launched a surprise attack on Iranian positions in mid-June.
Initial diplomatic talks had shown promise but became stalled as further attention shifted to military actions.
Following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites with advanced bunker-buster bombs, Iranian officials have indicated intentions to continue their nuclear program, which they assert is peaceful, although Israel contends it is a pathway to developing nuclear weapons.
Vali Nasr, an Iran specialist and professor at Johns Hopkins University, urged President Trump to expedite efforts to return to the negotiating table.
Nasr warned that time is not favorable for the U.S., with Iran potentially accelerating its nuclear ambitions in response to perceived threats from nuclear-armed nations.
Kenneth Pollack, vice president for policy at the Middle East Institute, emphasized the challenges of deterring Iran’s nuclear program through military means alone.
‘No matter how many scientists the Israelis kill, they’re not going to be able to assassinate Iran back to nuclear ignorance,’ he stated, underscoring the widespread knowledge of nuclear technology within Iran.
Further complicating the dynamics, Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), noted that there is a possibility that Iran has moved stockpiles of highly enriched uranium prior to the strikes, leaving some unknowns about the nation’s nuclear capabilities.
Despite limited interactions with IAEA inspectors over the past few years, Iran’s parliament has recently endorsed a bill suspending cooperation with the agency.
The Iranian leadership clarified that this suspension does not equate to withdrawal from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, but it would hamper IAEA inspections of affected facilities.
Stroul commented on the depth of Iran’s investment in its nuclear program, asserting that it is unrealistic to expect Tehran to quickly abandon its ambitions in the wake of recent hostilities.
As discussions between U.S. and Iranian officials are expected next week, there remains skepticism about what these negotiations might yield.
Shira Efron, director of research at the Israel Policy Forum, stated that while a deal could provide a more sustainable solution than the current ceasefire, the outcome of the discussions is uncertain.
The upcoming debates are anticipated to be complex, given the intricate technicalities surrounding nuclear issues and the entrenched stances of both parties.
Nasr commented that this upcoming phase presents a crucial test of diplomatic skills, raising questions about whether the negotiators possess the authority and capability to navigate the challenges effectively.
Geranmayeh remarked that while the framework for a potential agreement may be known from previous discussions, the absence of international inspectors at Iranian facilities complicates the negotiation process significantly.
She noted that the technicalities have become more challenging and that the established paths from earlier agreements may not be sufficient without transparency and oversight in place.
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