Colin Allred, a former Congressman from Dallas and a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, has officially declared his intentions to run again in 2026.
Allred is set to potentially challenge either Republican incumbent Senator John Cornyn or Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is Cornyn’s main challenger.
In a video accompanying his announcement, Allred expressed concern about the political landscape in Texas, stating, “Today, everything seems backwards. Folks who play by the rules and keep the faith just can’t seem to get ahead. But the folks who cut corners and cut deals – well, they’re doing just fine.”
He emphasized his motivation for running, pledging to work towards lowering costs and addressing corruption among politicians like Cornyn and Paxton, whom he accuses of rigging the economy against hardworking Texans.
Political experts suggest that Allred’s early entry into the race may pressure other potential Democratic candidates to firm up their plans quickly, as Michael O. Adams, founding director of the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, remarked.
Adams noted, “I think [Allred] made a strategic decision to be the first mover, with the clock now ticking for the other three candidates who are likely to enter the race on the Democrat side.”
The three candidates Adams referred to include former Congressman Beto O’Rourke, Representative Joaquin Castro from San Antonio, and State Representative James Talarico from Austin.
Elizabeth Simas, an associate professor of political science at Texas A&M University, weighed in on the implications of Allred’s announcement.
Simas opined that Allred’s presence in the race could discourage other prominent Democratic candidates from entering the fray. She stated, “[Allred] has the name recognition. He’s shown that he can run, although a losing campaign, a coherent and effective campaign. He has backers. He has money. He is a presence.”
Allred previously faced a tough challenge in 2024 when he lost to Republican Senator Ted Cruz by 8½ percentage points.
In comparison, O’Rourke’s previous statewide campaigns demonstrate varying degrees of success; he lost the 2018 Senate race against Cruz by a narrower margin of 2½ percentage points, a notable performance for a Texas Democrat in decades, but then went on to lose the 2022 gubernatorial contest against incumbent Governor Greg Abbott by nearly 11 points.
Despite these setbacks, political analysts consider Allred and O’Rourke to be the leading candidates in the Democratic primary, should O’Rourke choose to run.
Adams highlighted that a combination of name recognition and fundraising capabilities positions both candidates as formidable in the race.
According to data from the Federal Election Commission, Allred raised and spent close to $95 million during his 2024 campaign against Cruz, while O’Rourke similarly attracted about $77 million for his bid against Abbott.
Another contender for the Democratic nomination is former NASA astronaut Terry Virts, who announced his candidacy just last week, adding further dynamism to the race.
Recent polling from the Barbara Jordan Center indicates challenging waters ahead for Allred and O’Rourke in a general election match-up against incumbent Cornyn.
The poll suggests Cornyn leads Allred by a narrow margin of 48% to 44%, while Cornyn holds a slight edge over O’Rourke at 48% to 43%.
However, if Texas Attorney General Paxton emerges as the Republican nominee, the competition appears tighter, with Paxton leading Allred by just 48% to 46%, which falls within the margin of error.
Against O’Rourke, the poll shows Paxton slightly ahead at 49% to 45%.
Simas commented on the implications of Allred running against Paxton rather than an incumbent like Cornyn, asserting that any non-incumbent match-up tends to favor challengers.
She remarked, “The tide is likely to be a little more favorable to Democrats in the upcoming election, just because the trends in midterm elections are that the president’s party loses seats.”
Should Allred’s candidacy discourage other Democratic hopefuls from entering the race, experts believe this could open opportunities for Democrats to focus on other statewide offices.
Adams contended that such a scenario might enhance the odds for Democrats to win at least one statewide race for the first time in over three decades, inviting greater participation across various offices.
“If they could field candidates in each of those races… and they are able to increase voter turnout, the chances are much better in winning one of those seats,” Adams concluded.
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