As the situation in Gaza unfolds, much attention is being paid to the immediate repercussions of Hamas’ actions. However, the narrative surrounding Iran’s evolving role in the Middle East is arguably far more critical for U.S. national security and regional stability.
Dr. Eric R. Mandel highlights that Iran is entering an increasingly perilous phase. This new trajectory seems devoid of diplomatic engagements, instead emphasizing the unchecked consolidation of military power by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The recent Israeli air campaign starting in June 2025 has significantly impacted this scenario, targeting the IRGC’s military installations and leadership. Over the past 20 months, Israel’s operations aimed to undermine Iran’s proxy networks, heightening the stakes in an already volatile region.
Before the October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks orchestrated by Hamas in southern Israel, analysts shifted their focus towards the succession of the aging Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. However, as Dr. Mandel asserts, this debate may be sidestepping the more pressing issue: the next supreme leader will likely be a puppet of the IRGC, rather than a powerful figure in his own right.
Israel’s military campaign has intensified the IRGC’s metamorphosis from an elite ideological force into the predominant power center within Iran. If the IRGC consolidates its control further, a far more extreme and aggressive Iran can be anticipated, generating catastrophic implications for both the Iranian populace and the broader region.
Established in 1979 to safeguard the Islamic Revolution, the IRGC has morphed into a ‘state within a state,’ wielding substantial influence over the nation’s foreign policy, economy, and internal repression.
The IRGC is pivotal in overseeing Iran’s military operations, including its nuclear ambitions, missile development, and proxy forces operating outside of its borders. Domestically, the IRGC controls paramilitary units, intelligence services, and an extensive domestic security apparatus.
Economically, it commands vital sectors including oil and telecommunications, mainly through its influential conglomerate, Khatam al-Anbiya. Estimates suggest that the IRGC has control or direct influence over up to 40% of Iran’s GDP, revealing the depth of its entrenchment within the nation’s framework.
Israel’s coordinated airstrikes in June 2025 aimed to dismantle the IRGC’s regional capabilities and impede its secretive nuclear progression. The strikes successfully hit various military targets, including training centers and missile facilities, exposing the regime’s vulnerabilities to both its citizens and the broader international community.
These military actions have, however, unleashed a power vacuum within Iran, likely prompting the IRGC to respond with increased internal suppression and the mobilization of proxy militias. The lack of a cohesive civilian government or legitimate clerical leadership could position the IRGC as the default authority in an increasingly fragmented Iranian landscape.
While regime change remains out of the official U.S. policy framework, Dr. Mandel suggests that Washington must grapple with the reality of an IRGC-led Iran that could evolve into a more radical and expansionist regime with a nuclear breakout capability.
Anticipated outcomes of this transformation include:
1. Increased internal repression and the suppression of civil society.
2. Escalated military actions against U.S. allies in the Gulf and maritime assets.
3. A resurgence of proxy warfare across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
4. Heightened cyberattacks and assassination threats overseas, potentially activating dormant sleeper cells.
5. Rebuilding of the nuclear weapons infrastructure, away from any surveillance mechanisms.
The IRGC thrives on anti-Western sentiments and has no inclination towards compromise, which represents a grave threat not solely to Israel but to all pro-Western states in the region as well.
In light of this looming threat, Dr. Mandel calls for strategic planning among Washington, Brussels, Jerusalem, and Gulf capitals with respect to a potential IRGC-dominated Iran.
Strategies should encompass:
– Enhanced enforcement of sanctions: The IRGC is already listed as a U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization. Thus, it is imperative to ramp up secondary sanctions against its shell companies, global partnerships, and illegal trading routes, particularly in Asia and the Gulf.
– Strengthening regional alliances: Israel’s recent military actions have demonstrated both potential and necessity. The U.S. should prioritize joint missile defense initiatives with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the UAE. Closer cooperation with Israel must be recognized as essential.
– Supporting Iranian civil society: The IRGC’s hold over information can be undermined through funding Persian-language satellite media and circumnavigating technologies. Providing safe platforms for dissent and financial backing for Iranian-organized protests can impact the internal dynamics.
– Reinforcing Israel’s deterrent capabilities: Regardless of any new nuclear agreements, it is likely that the IRGC will pursue illicit actions. Washington needs to support Israel’s right to defend itself and conduct preemptive strikes when necessary.
Any forthcoming nuclear agreement, irrespective of the governing body in Iran, should insist on the following:
– Complete dismantling of uranium enrichment and plutonium programs.
– A permanent halt to ballistic missile development.
– Unrestricted American inspector access in conjunction with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
– Termination of funding for terrorist proxies.
While some in Washington question the potential outcomes of a fallen Iranian regime, Dr. Mandel posits a more pertinent inquiry: What if the Iranian regime does not collapse but instead morphs into something more sinister?
It is essential to understand that Israel’s operations did not precipitate this reality; rather, the shift was anticipated and already underway. Iran is in transition from a clerical theocracy toward a military autocracy, increasingly characterized by coercive ideologies and military prowess.
The IRGC is poised to become the regime’s future face, and it is imperative that the West strategizes accordingly to address this crucial situation.
The Israeli military actions have temporarily slowed the progression toward Iran obtaining nuclear weapons—a dire scenario that has provided the U.S. and its regional allies a short window to plan for future contingencies and ensure a nuclear-free Iran.
With the disintegration of the illusion of a stable regime, Iran is increasingly defined by the unchecked ambitions of the IRGC, prompting the urgent need for preemptive and strategic actions by the United States before the country’s transformation becomes irreversible.
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