As U.S. military operations in Yemen continue to impact Houthi capabilities, the question of Yemen’s post-Houthi future becomes increasingly pressing. Yemen’s modern political history serves as a cautionary tale, revealing the complexities of governance and the dangers of fragmentation.
For much of the late 20th century, Yemen was divided into two distinct states: the Yemen Arab Republic, or North Yemen, and the Marxist-oriented People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen, known as South Yemen. Their unification in 1990 under the leadership of North Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh masked persistent political, tribal, and economic tensions. Saleh’s regime, dependent on patronage and coercion, marginalized Southern Yemenis, stoking resentment over time.
The failed southern secession in 1994 and the ensuing civil war only deepened these divisions. Saleh may have preserved a semblance of unity, but his administration never truly integrated Yemen’s diverse factions into a cohesive state.
The Arab Spring protests of 2011 forced Saleh to step down, yet the vacuum created afterwards allowed Iran-backed Houthis to seize control of Sana’a in 2014, further dismantling the transitional government. This power struggle evolved into a broader regional proxy conflict engaging Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran. Today, Yemen’s institutions lie in tatters after more than a decade of fragmentation.
Currently, two main visions for Yemen’s future are emerging: partition and decentralization. The Southern Transitional Council, supported by the United Arab Emirates, advocates for the independence of Southern Yemen. This approach may appear straightforward, drawing on historical precedents and potentially simplifying governance efforts.
However, partition carries significant risks. It is likely to spur border disputes, particularly over resource-rich areas such as Marib and Shabwah. Fragmentation could embolden other groups seeking autonomy, leading to even greater instability. Additionally, the fear of a balkanized Yemen might prompt policymakers to reconsider the benefits of eliminating the Houthis, who, despite their links to terrorism, exercise substantial control in northern Yemen.
On the other hand, a unified but decentralized Yemen could offer a more stable alternative. Transferring power from a central authority to local leaders would resonate with Yemen’s tribal and regional realities. Decentralization could help mitigate conflicts over central authority and enable more effective governance and rebuilding efforts.
Maintaining Yemen’s territorial integrity would fortify national identity while allowing different communities to self-govern. This path ensures a more equitable resource distribution and would collectively deter Iranian influence in northern Yemen.
While some critics express doubts about the feasibility of decentralization amid weak institutions and armed factions, these criticisms reflect the current environment rather than the potential outcomes of a decentralized framework. Yemen is already fragmented; thus, a decentralized model could be instrumental in reintegrating the country’s various factions into a unified national structure.
Support for this model demands decisive action from regional and international stakeholders. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Egypt must collaborate to uphold Yemen’s territorial integrity and limit foreign meddling. Efforts should focus on bolstering anti-Houthi tribal factions while promoting accountable local governance that reinforces national unity.
Furthermore, U.S. policymakers should advocate for a transitional governing council that fairly represents all major regions and factions in Yemen. This inclusive structure would facilitate participatory decision-making and contribute to stabilizing governance in the post-war environment.
Aligning with U.S. regional strategy, this approach serves multiple purposes, including restricting Iranian influence, ensuring safe navigation in the Red Sea, strengthening partnerships with Western-aligned states, and countering China’s maritime ambitions. A unified Yemen is pivotal for thwarting the emergence of a persistent haven for terrorism, arms trafficking, and foreign interference.
image source from：https://www.meforum.org/mef-observer/the-united-states-must-keep-yemen-whole
