The geopolitical landscape in Asia is rapidly changing, necessitating a reevaluation of security alliances among U.S. allies in the region, particularly in light of the growing threat posed by China. For decades, a formal collective defense arrangement in Asia was neither feasible nor deemed essential. However, as tensions rise, particularly surrounding Taiwan and the South China Sea, the time has come for the establishment of a robust defense pact among key partners, including Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States.
China’s ambitions remain clear, with its leadership pursuing what it refers to as ‘the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.’ This overarching objective involves the intent to assert control over Taiwan and the South China Sea, weaken U.S. alliances, and ultimately establish Chinese dominance across the Indo-Pacific region. Failure to counteract these ambitions raises the potential for a destabilized region, reducing the United States to a peripheral power, less prosperous and less secure.
According to CIA Director William Burns, Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan by 2027. Yet, China’s leaders harbor doubts about their capabilities to execute such an invasion successfully. It is critical for U.S. foreign policy to sustain these doubts, demonstrating to Beijing that any act of aggression would incur unacceptable costs.
To address this challenge, the U.S. has invested heavily in advanced military technology and shifted operational strategies to bolster deterrence. Washington is no longer solely focused on bilateral alliances; instead, it is fostering a networked approach that empowers allies and encourages closer ties amongst themselves. This shift has already created significant challenges for Beijing’s strategic calculus.
Despite recent improvements in multilateral cooperation, the existing initiatives are still too informal and lack the framework necessary to establish a stronger deterrence against China’s military modernization. A formal Pacific Defense Pact, formalizing commitments among Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States, would fortify regional security against potential Chinese aggression.
Skepticism regarding the feasibility of such a pact exists, particularly in light of shifting political dynamics in Washington. Leaders across U.S. allied nations continue, however, to prioritize deeper military cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Even in an unpredictable political environment, trends favoring collective defense frameworks are likely to persist, and current military establishments should begin laying the groundwork for future collaboration.
The lessons of history indicate that the architecture for U.S. security partnerships in Asia has evolved over time. Since World War II, the United States established a network of alliances aimed at countering Soviet expansion and promoting regional stability. These alliances, consisting primarily of bilateral agreements with various nations, fostered an environment conducive to economic growth and political stability, despite certain historical upheavals.
However, unlike NATO’s collective defense strategy in Europe, the Asian counterparts failed to unify under a mutual defense framework. This reluctance stems from Asian leaders preferring strong bilateral ties with the U.S. to eliminate concerns over being dragged into broader conflicts involving competing great powers. Such hesitations contributed to past failures, including the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), which lacked cohesion and ultimately dissolved.
Today’s climate is markedly different. Rising assertiveness from China is sparking calls for collective defense among Asian nations. Japanese leaders, for instance, have expressed urgent concern about the absence of a collective defense mechanism akin to NATO’s, underscoring the rising potential for conflict in the region.
This urgent recalibration is propelled by three pivotal trends: a new strategic alignment due to the perceived threats from China, increased security cooperation among U.S. allies, and a growing expectation of shared responsibility in maintaining regional peace. Nations like Japan are investing extensively in their military capabilities, while the Philippines is adjusting its defense strategy to confront the encroachment of Chinese maritime activities.
Japan’s military reorientation is particularly noteworthy. The rise of China has strained relations with Tokyo, prompting shifts in defense policies to enhance military engagement. Japan’s increased military budget, along with plans to acquire long-range missiles, signals a transformation in how it perceives security dynamics in the region. Meanwhile, the Philippines has modernized its military capabilities, moving away from a focus on internal insurgencies to address external threats, primarily from China.
Australia, too, is reassessing its military priorities. Historically, it viewed China’s ascent as beneficial, but recent behaviors have led to an acknowledgment of the inherent risks. A predominant concern stemming from geopolitical tensions has catalyzed Australia to reevaluate its defense strategies and invest heavily in military upgrades to prepare for the evolving landscape.
These nations are not only recognizing China as a common threat but are increasingly aware of their shared fates. Statements from former leaders in Japan and the Philippines affirm their interconnected security considerations, emphasizing that instability concerning Taiwan could implicate broader regional peace.
The increased collaboration among allies is evident through evolving defense initiatives among Australia, Japan, and the Philippines, further building a foundation for what could evolve into a formal collective defense agreement. The United States has expressed support for these partnerships, engaging with allies to enhance defense industrial cooperation and conduct joint military exercises, signaling a shift toward more integrated security measures.
However, the current arrangements exhibit significant shortcomings, including the lack of formal mutual defense commitments, absence of a central command structure for multilateral operations, and intermittent coordination among defense establishments. A Pacific Defense Pact would address these gaps, leveraging existing military cooperation while establishing clear mutual obligations among the key partners, intensifying efforts toward comprehensive deterrence.
Progress toward such an agreement is crucial, necessitating high-level negotiations to export these concepts into actionable commitments among Australia, Japan, and the Philippines. Enhanced military cooperation could include intelligence sharing, joint training, and establishing operational command and control structures that formally integrate military strategies across the partners.
In addition to improving internal cooperation among the pact members, security partnerships with the U.S. need a recalibration toward greater reciprocity. The current treaties often reflect historical imbalances that may no longer be sustainable in today’s evolving strategic environment. The need for U.S. allies to contribute more substantially in regional defense contexts has become urgent as the landscape shifts.
While the Trump administration may exhibit a degree of unpredictability, a consensus is emerging among U.S. allies that collaboration must endure despite differing political winds. The imperative to develop a cohesive defensive arrangement aligns with each nation’s objective of ensuring its own national security amidst rising external threats.
As the geopolitical context continues to evolve, it’s essential to communicate the value of a collective defense pact. Strengthening such an agreement would not only bolster deterrence against China but also establish frameworks for meaningful collaboration through shared military logistics, intelligence frameworks, and concerted operational structures. Addressing sovereignty concerns and establishing mutual commitments will necessitate deft diplomacy, but lay the groundwork for a formidable alliance capable of preserving peace in the region.
Ultimately, the progress made to date among U.S. allies in Asia, including increasing military investments and strategic partnerships, provides a solid foundation for establishing a formal collective defense pact. The changing security environment underscores the escalating urgency for robust collective defense mechanisms, paving the way for a promising future united against shared challenges.
image source from：https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/case-pacific-defense-pact-ely-ratner
