In the early 1970s, President Richard Nixon changed the course of history by fostering a closer relationship between the United States and Communist China, a move that provided Washington a strategic advantage against the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Fast forward to half a century later, and President Donald Trump appears to have his sights set on a similar diplomatic achievement, but in reverse: attempting to draw Russia closer to the United States while isolating China in the ongoing geopolitical competition.
This ambitious strategy, often termed a ‘reverse Nixon’ in foreign-policy discussions, aims to alter the trajectory of international relations. If successful, Trump’s efforts could lead to the isolation of China, enhance European security, and reinforce American global primacy.
However, experts warn that such a plan carries significant risks and complexities that could easily lead to unintended consequences.
The rationale behind trying to separate Russia from China seems logical at first glance. In recent years, the partnership between Moscow and Beijing has grown stronger, posing a credible threat to U.S. interests around the world. For instance, China’s backing of Russia amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine underscores this alliance.
Trump himself acknowledged the importance of keeping Russia and China apart in an October interview. He cited an academic mentor’s warning against their potential unity, stating, “I’m going to have to un-unite them, and I think I can do that.”
This statement encapsulates the current U.S. administration’s concerns. Secretary of State Marco Rubio further elaborated on this point, suggesting that if Russia becomes a subordinate ally to China, it could create a formidable alliance of nuclear powers that would work against U.S. interests.
Rubio cautioned, “If Russia becomes a permanent junior partner to China in the long term, well, now you’re talking about two nuclear powers aligned against the United States.”
Chinese officials, however, have rebuffed any notion of losing Russia to Trump, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi labeling the reverse-Nixon concept as belonging to an obsolete Cold War mindset. He insisted that the relationship between Beijing and Moscow is “as solid and unshakable as mountains.”
Despite such reassurances, Wang’s reaction could reflect deeper insecurities within the Chinese leadership. Shortly after Trump’s conversations with Putin, Xi Jinping also spoke with the Russian president to emphasize that their countries are “true friends” with a partnership that holds “unique strategic value.”
Nixon’s diplomatic efforts in the 1970s were, in some aspects, simpler than the challenges facing Trump today. The Chinese leaders Nixon engaged were already at odds with the Soviets, perceiving them as a threat. In contrast, China and Russia’s current relationship is significantly more intertwined as both nations enjoy a beneficial partnership.
Putin’s affinity for Xi Jinping was evident recently when he hosted the Chinese leader at a World War II Victory Day celebration in Moscow, labeling Xi as his “dear friend.” Additionally, there has been little enthusiasm from Putin regarding a deal with Trump to resolve the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The Trump administration may underestimate the profound connection that exists between these two adversarial nations. While Trump attributed their unity primarily to U.S. policy failures, particularly those under President Joe Biden, experts believe the partnership is underpinned by their shared political, economic, and strategic interests.
Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, pointed out, “Their common mistrust of Washington and their hopes of becoming more powerful in an emerging multipolar order—at the United States’ expense—are likely to provide a strong enough foundation to keep the Chinese-Russian partnership stable and growing.”
In addition to political alignments, the economic ties between Russia and China are also significant. Currently, about 30 percent of Russian exports go to China, and 40 percent of its imports come from its eastern neighbor. Furthermore, China is now the largest purchaser of Russian oil, making it unlikely that Moscow could easily pivot away from Beijing even if the U.S. were to remove sanctions resulting from the Ukraine conflict.
Michael McFaul and Evan Medeiros highlighted this aspect in an April essay: “Putin has no reason to give up China’s extensive, concrete, and reliable support to Russia’s civilian economy and defense industry in exchange for ties to Washington that may not last past the end of Trump’s term.”
Should Trump and Xi find themselves vying for Putin’s favor, there remains a risk that the Russian leader might leverage both relationships for his own gain. Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program, outlined a possible scenario where Russia plays a pivotal role among the United States, China, and itself.
Should a successful reverse Nixon strategy unfold, the implications for the U.S. could be significant. However, failure to adequately separate Russia from China has the potential to fracture American alliances in Europe and strengthen both adversarial nations.
Ultimately, one must consider that with its substantial nuclear arsenal, Russia continues to be a critical threat to global security. If Trump opts to elevate Putin’s strategic position, it could further empower both him and Xi to intensify their pressure on the United States.
image source from：https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/05/reverse-nixon-trump-russia-china/682966/
