San Francisco residents may soon face a higher cost for trash pickup as city officials introduced a new proposal that suggests raising refuse rates by nearly 28 percent over the next three years, commencing this October.
This proposal, shared at a recent meeting of the Refuse Rate Board, comes in response to challenges surrounding Recology, the monopoly provider of trash collection services in the city, which is governed by a voter-approved ordinance.
Earlier this year, Recology requested an even steeper rate hike of 32 percent over three years, initiating with an 18 percent increase upfront when the new rates take effect.
However, the city’s refuse rates administrator, Jay Liao, countered by proposing a reduced hike, reflecting a nearly 13 percent increase in rates starting from October 2025 and extending until October 2026.
For households with standard service, this proposed adjustment would translate to an increase of $5.97 per month, significantly lower than Recology’s original strategy which would have raised costs by $8.55.
Liao explained the reasoning behind the proposed adjustments: “The bottom line here is that the revenue from the rates have not really kept up with the cost.”
The hearing held on Friday marks the second of three sessions conducted by the city’s Refuse Rate Board concerning the proposed hike. A conclusive hearing is set for June 25, where it is anticipated that the board will approve the city’s recommendations for the new rates.
Recology’s monopoly status in San Francisco means that its rates are subject to approval by the Refuse Rate Board, which includes oversight from various city commissions, in addition to input from Liao himself.
The backdrop to this rate increase discussion is complicated by a history of corruption and mismanagement. Proposition F, passed in 2022, led to the establishment of the Refuse Rate Board following a federal investigation that revealed illicit practices involving Recology and San Francisco’s Public Works Department.
The investigation resulted in two high-ranking Recology executives pleading guilty to bribery charges. Furthermore, Mohammed Nuru, the former director of Public Works, was sentenced to seven years in prison, highlighting the serious breaches of trust that had taken place.
As an outcome of these events, the company was obligated to reimburse San Francisco residents nearly $100 million in 2021 for previously inflated rates and subsequently agreed to a separate settlement amounting to $25 million for exceeding its allowed profit margins between 2018 and 2021.
Compounding these issues, Recology discovered in 2024 that it had committed a significant accounting error leading to overcharges of ratepayers totaling approximately $24 million. The company later reimbursed customers through credits on their refuse bills.
The financial challenges facing Recology have been compounded post-pandemic, with a notable decline in collections due to reduced population and foot traffic in San Francisco. Consequently, the company’s revenue has not met expectations over the preceding two years, and projections indicate minimal growth through at least 2028.
In comparison with broader trends, refuse costs in the Bay Area have surged by 17 percent since 2019, with national figures showing a 22 percent increase in water, sewer, and trash services during the same period. Despite these trends, Recology’s rates have only increased by 7 percent.
The proposed rate hike aims to keep San Francisco’s refuse collection fees more affordable than those in other Californian cities, such as Los Angeles, Oakland, and San Jose, as outlined in the refuse rates administrator’s report.
Importantly, the city has effectively reduced Recology’s initial request by $52 million, taking into account various savings, including unfilled staff positions and decreased payments to its corporate parent company related to regulatory functions.
Despite these considerations, asking residents to accept higher refuse collection rates remains a sensitive issue, especially in light of Recology’s troubled history.
As the Refuse Rate Board prepares for its upcoming vote on new rates, it will simultaneously consider implementing additional city oversight measures over Recology’s operations. These measures are intended to ensure better accountability and transparency concerning the company’s contractual obligations with the city.
“It feels a little awkward to tout what should be baseline,” Liao remarked when discussing the necessity of increased oversight, but he added, “This moves us away from the handshake agreements of the last 100 years.”
image source from：https://missionlocal.org/2025/05/recology-rate-increase/
