Almost a decade ago, the United States and major global powers finalized a pivotal nuclear agreement with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
This deal emerged after two years of intense negotiations and was a central aspect of then-President Barack Obama’s foreign policy, labeling the Iranian nuclear threat as the ‘most consequential foreign policy debate’ since the Iraq invasion.
However, in a significant shift, President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the JCPOA just two years after it took effect, marking one of the major foreign policy actions of his presidency.
The tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear ambitions have since escalated, particularly in light of its conflict with Israel, which has been recently characterized by aerial strikes following a surprise attack on Tehran that resulted in multiple fatalities, including nuclear scientists and military leaders.
The JCPOA was signed on July 14, 2015, and placed critical restrictions on Iran’s civilian nuclear enrichment program while offering relief from sanctions.
Negotiated by Iran along with the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—alongside Germany and the European Union, the agreement aimed to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program remained solely peaceful.
The Obama administration touted the JCPOA as a robust agreement blocking every pathway to nuclear armament while establishing an unprecedented verification regime for Iran’s nuclear program.
According to the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, the agreement required Iran to significantly reduce its nuclear activities and accept strict oversight measures.
In exchange, sanctions would only be lifted after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had met specific requirements, including the removal of a substantial portion of its enriched uranium and the dismantling of two-thirds of its centrifuges.
The deal officially commenced on January 16, 2016, once the IAEA verified Iran’s compliance.
With the lifting of sanctions, Iran gained access to approximately $100 billion in frozen assets, which experts noted would likely postpone the country’s ability to develop nuclear weapons for more than a decade.
Critics of the deal, however, pointed to certain provisions with expiration dates that they believed would ultimately enable Iran to pursue a nuclear weapon after a period of relative calm.
Among the opponents was Israel, whose Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred to the JCPOA as a ‘historic mistake’ at the time of its signing.
On May 8, 2018, President Trump followed through on his campaign promise by terminating U.S. participation in the JCPOA and reinstating economic sanctions on Iran, deeming the agreement ‘horrible.’
Trump asserted that the current deal structure was fundamentally flawed and incapable of preventing Iran from developing nuclear capabilities.
His administration criticized the JCPOA, claiming that it was negotiated in bad faith and provided Iran with concessions that outweighed the benefits.
Despite warnings from global allies such as France, Germany, and the U.K., who expressed regret over the withdrawal and urged Iran to fulfill its obligations under the JCPOA, Trump proceeded with the exit from the agreement.
In the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal, tensions escalated dramatically.
Following the U.S. airstrike that killed Qassem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s Quds Force, the Iranian government declared its intention to disregard all operational constraints of the nuclear deal.
By early 2023, the IAEA noted that traces of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels had been detected at Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility, a claim that Iran insisted was accidental.
The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation reported that Iran’s timeline for potentially obtaining enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon had significantly decreased from over a year to approximately three to four months since the JCPOA’s disintegration.
Despite the breakdown of the agreement, the IAEA maintained oversight to ensure the peaceful intent of Iran’s nuclear program.
As several provisions of the JCPOA approached expiration in October 2023, the Biden administration took action by enforcing new sanctions targeting Iran’s ballistic missile and drone development programs.
Though there were efforts to negotiate a return to the JCPOA, the Biden administration faced challenges in achieving this goal.
State Department representatives indicated that negotiations were “far away” from being resumed, illustrating the complexities of reinstituting the JCPOA.
During Trump’s second term, he issued threats of potential military action against Iran to prevent it from advancing its nuclear weapons program, maintaining the issue at the forefront of international relations.
In recent weeks, discussions have taken place between U.S. and Iranian delegations regarding nuclear negotiations, though progress has reportedly stalled amid ongoing conflicts between Israel and Iran.
On Thursday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt shared a statement from Trump expressing optimism regarding imminent negotiations, indicating a possible decision on the nation’s next steps within two weeks, though specific details remain unclear.
The future of U.S.-Iran relations and the JCPOA remains uncertain, with ongoing geopolitical tensions and the complex interplay of regional conflicts continuing to shape the narrative.
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