As President Donald Trump approaches the halfway mark of his first year back in office, the Republican-majority Congress has granted him the green light to advance significant portions of his domestic agenda.
The recent budget bill passed by Congress promises to influence various aspects of life on Long Island, from the economy and healthcare access to immigration enforcement and environmental policies.
Experts believe that the implications of this legislation will be in the spotlight during next year’s midterm elections.
Lawrence Levy, the executive dean of Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies, highlighted that the upcoming elections will be significantly impacted by the ongoing debate over the SALT (State and Local Tax) deduction.
Levy referred to the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions established by a Republican-led Congress in 2017, noting that the current budget bill has raised that cap to $40,000.
He emphasized that the outcome of this messaging battle will be shaped by factors such as media strategy, fundraising capabilities, and the overall economic climate, including how much the public feels the effects of the SALT caps.
In a party-line vote, Long Island’s House delegation has shown similar partisan splits, with Reps. Andrew Garbarino and Nick LaLota voting in favor of the bill while Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen placed their votes against it.
Additionally, Democratic Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand also opposed the bill.
The budget bill’s economic implications are extensive, with major provisions aimed at extending the tax cuts initially implemented during Trump’s first term in office.
These changes are designed to make a majority of those tax cuts permanent while adding new short-term measures.
One notable change is the increase in the SALT deduction cap to $40,000 for households earning $500,000 or less for the next five years, after which it will revert back to the previous $10,000 limit.
Matt Cohen, the president and CEO of the Long Island Association, praised the efforts of Garbarino and LaLota for their negotiation to raise the SALT cap amid opposition from Republican representatives in less affluent states.
While Cohen applauded this change, he mentioned that the association is still analyzing the broad implications the overall bill will have on Long Island’s economy, particularly concerning healthcare, renewable energy, food security, and the national deficit.
The White House maintains that the tax cuts will stimulate domestic spending and encourage business growth, yet many economic analyses suggest that the package may accrue an additional $3.4 trillion in national debt by 2034, which could hinder long-term economic progress.
Recently, the Yale Budget Lab released an analysis positing that fewer provisions in the bill will effectively drive lasting economic growth while predominantly contributing to rising debt and increasing pressure on interest rates.
Turning to healthcare, advocates have raised alarms regarding potential negative consequences resulting from changes to Medicaid eligibility and Affordable Care Act enrollment requirements.
It is projected that New York could suffer a loss of $120 billion in federal Medicaid funding over the next decade, particularly affecting states that expanded Medicaid access under the Affordable Care Act.
This analysis comes from KFF, a nonprofit focused on healthcare policy.
For context, there are currently 367,087 individuals enrolled in Medicaid in Suffolk County and 308,354 enrollees in Nassau County, according to the latest health data from the state.
Kenneth E. Raske, president of the Greater New York Hospital Association, has voiced concerns over major cuts to health services and jobs, predicting that roughly 1.5 million New Yorkers could be at risk of losing their healthcare coverage.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office also estimates that over 11.8 million Americans might lose access to healthcare by 2034 due to provisions included in the new bill.
Raske warned that reducing health insurance eligibility does not prevent individuals from becoming ill or needing hospitalization.
Instead, he emphasized, it would drastically increase the costs of uncompensated care for hospitals.
Environmental impacts associated with this budget bill have drawn concern from advocates as well.
The legislation will phase out Biden-era clean energy tax credits that have been designed to promote the adoption of solar panels, wind energy, and electric vehicles.
The $7,500 tax credit for purchasing or leasing new electric vehicles is set to expire on September 30, while the 30% tax credit for residential solar panel installations will vanish at the end of the year.
Local organizations focused on environmental advocacy, such as Citizens Campaign for the Environment, argue that the elimination of these credits will likely stifle the growth Long Island has experienced in the clean energy sector.
Adrienne Esposito, executive director of the Citizens Campaign for the Environment, noted that many low- to moderate-income homeowners have depended on these tax credits to help alleviate the high electric costs on Long Island.
Esposito acknowledged that while the incentive programs are marketed as environmentally beneficial, many households utilize them to save on energy expenses instead.
On the immigration front, funding for immigration enforcement has surged as a key focus for Trump during his presidential campaign, and the new budget will provide a $100 billion increase in funds through 2029.
This financial boost will allow the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency to expand its operations, which is projected to become the largest law enforcement agency in the country.
The funds will primarily be allocated for building additional detention facilities, enhancing border security efforts along the southern U.S. border, and facilitating deportation efforts.
Levy noted that this escalation in immigration enforcement could bolster Republican support among Trump’s base for the upcoming midterm elections.
However, he warned that it may also alienate moderate swing voters, as recent polling indicates growing disapproval among the public regarding the operational methods employed by ICE.
Levy concluded that how both political parties navigate the messaging surrounding immigration will be crucial to shaping the outcomes of the midterm elections.
This budget bill exemplifies the complex interplay of economic, healthcare, environmental, and immigration policies affecting Long Island residents, underscoring the need for critical analysis and engagement as the midterm elections approach.
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