The city of Los Angeles has seen a significant decrease in homicides, with numbers falling by over 20% in the first half of the year.
According to a tally from the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD), homicides have dropped to 116 as of June 28, compared to 152 during the same timeframe in the previous year.
This ongoing decline places the city on track to potentially end 2025 with the lowest total of homicides in nearly six decades.
Since the peak of over 400 homicides recorded in 2021, a year filled with the turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic, the overall trend for homicide rates has been considerably downward.
This decrease aligns with a national pattern, as other major cities like Baltimore and Detroit report similar declines in violent crime.
Experts suggest that the country may be experiencing the sharpest decline in killings in its history, one that is difficult to attribute to any single cause.
Charis Kubrin, a professor of criminology at the University of California, Irvine, states, “What we’re seeing is a broader trend that goes over several years.
We’re witnessing homicide rates decline all across the United States.”
The LAPD has confirmed that the current totals are on pace for the lowest annual count of homicides since at least 1968.
Additional areas under the jurisdiction of the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department are also experiencing a decline in killings.
Through May 31, the most recent date with published data, these areas reported 58 homicides, a significant drop from the 184 people killed last year and nearly 100 fewer than in 2021.
These diminishing crime statistics present a stark contrast to the grim portrayal of the city offered by President Donald Trump and other senior U.S. officials, who recently justified the deployment of military troops in Los Angeles.
Particularly in southern neighborhoods that have historically been the most affected by violent crime, remarkable improvements have been observed.
For instance, the LAPD’s 77th Street Division in South Los Angeles, which previously recorded higher homicide numbers than the entire San Fernando Valley combined, saw a decrease from a high of 63 in 2021 to only 38 last year.
Similarly, the Southeast Division covering Watts and nearby communities reported a decrease of more than a third in homicide numbers during the same period.
Despite the positive progress, Kubrin and fellow researchers caution against overinterpreting crime data for individual years.
She notes that the reasons for these improvements are likely rooted in the complex interrelationship of societal responses to stress, political divisiveness, and economic challenges since 2020.
“With its diversity, challenges, and issues, L.A. still reports lower homicide rates than other major cities,” Kubrin added.
Historically, there has been a theory suggesting that violence tends to decline during economic booms; however, this does not always hold true, as seen by the high homicide rates during the early 1990s coinciding with a recession.
Conversely, similar downturns in the mid-2000s did not necessarily lead to increased violence.
Some conservative commentators attribute the decrease in violence to tough-on-crime strategies, but Kubrin points out that other Western industrialized nations with lower incarceration rates have also witnessed crime drops.
In contrast, the Trump administration’s proposal includes cutting hundreds of millions in federal funding for school safety grants, youth mentoring programs, and gang intervention networks, all of which can play a significant role in reducing crime rates, as research indicates.
Jeff Asher, a prominent criminology expert, described the current decline as “the great murder decline,” attributing it to significant community investments from both private and public sources following the pandemic.
While the LAPD has already begun reducing its size, critics continue to advocate for reallocating resources from the police budget to support programs aimed at alleviating poverty and providing housing stability.
Deputy Chief Alan Hamilton of the LAPD noted that increased police presence during recent emergencies has likely acted as a deterrent to violent crime, along with efforts from gang intervention organizations and social workers.
However, Hamilton also warned that such positive trends might be jeopardized if the department continues to lose officers amidst the city’s financial difficulties.
He cautioned that the summer months typically experience spikes in violent incidents, which could affect ongoing reductions in homicide rates.
“Obviously, we increased our presence during the fires and unrest,” Hamilton explained.
The department’s strategy focuses on targeting the small group of hardcore offenders who drive most of the violence, which Hamilton believes is proving effective.
“I think we’re seeing the dividends of that, as opposed to casting a wide net,” he stated.
image source from：latimes
