A recent analysis highlights a daunting shift in the strategic nuclear landscape facing the United States and its allies: a world characterized by two nuclear peer major powers.
With Russia’s reliance on its nuclear arsenal deepening amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and China’s rapid nuclear expansion, projections indicate that by 2035, Beijing will approximate the United States in nuclear capabilities.
Compounding these challenges, North Korea is actively diversifying its nuclear forces, and emerging threats from nations like Iran necessitate a robust U.S. response.
In response to these developments, bipartisan analysts warn of a new paradigm in nuclear aggression potential, asserting the urgent need for enhanced U.S. theater nuclear capabilities.
Conducted by former senior U.S. officials, the analyses from the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States underscore that while current U.S. nuclear forces are essential, they fall short of adequately addressing these threats.
Both reports advocate for improvements in U.S. theater nuclear capabilities, emphasizing that the most likely path to large-scale nuclear confrontations stems from the failure to deter or respond to limited adversary nuclear actions in conventional conflicts.
This paper aims to dissect why the dual nuclear threat environment necessitates urgent enhancements to U.S. theater nuclear forces and to explore the attributes these forces must embody to counter the evolving threats effectively.
The analysis reveals strategic implications not only for conflicts with Russia and China but also highlights potential simultaneous aggressions from both nations, stressing the pressing need for U.S. military readiness across multiple theatres.
The challenge posed by adversarial limited nuclear escalation underscores the need for a credible Flexible Response strategy, which would convince potential adversaries that nuclear aggression would be met with significant risks and could lead to chaos for all involved.
This necessitates a robust combination of nuclear and conventional forces capable of delivering a diverse response to dissuade adversaries from deploying nuclear weapons at any level.
In exploring the current U.S. theater nuclear capacity, the paper emphasizes that the existing forces, which are limited primarily to forward-deployed DCA in Europe, are insufficient for addressing emerging threats.
Moreover, the analysis discusses the significant challenges imposed by U.S. conventional forces’ limitations, stressing that without enhancements to nuclear capabilities, the nation’s strategy must rely increasingly on nuclear deterrence to achieve decisive outcomes in theater conflicts.
In examining current U.S. theater nuclear options, the paper outlines the limitations of DCA, SLCM-Ns on submarines, and other potential systems.
Recommendations include deploying additional DCA and integrating various launch platforms—such as SLCM-Ns and GLBM-Ns—ensuring that the U.S. maintains credible deterrent capabilities across both Europe and Asia.
With Russia’s and China’s growing military capabilities, adjusting U.S. nuclear posture seems unavoidable to effectively combat adversarial maneuvers.
In conclusion, the ongoing threat landscape signals a demand for a multipronged approach, embedding resilient theater nuclear forces into the U.S. military structure to prepare against unprecedented nuclear confrontations and display unwavering commitment to allied security.
Reflecting on the findings of these analyses serves as a reminder for military strategists about the complexities of contemporary warfare and the evolving dynamics of nuclear deterrence.
Consequently, the U.S. must carefully navigate these challenges, recognizing that dismissing the potential for simultaneous aggressive actions by nuclear peers could undermine global stability and embolden adversarial behavior.
image source from：https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/the-imperative-of-augmenting-us-theater-nuclear-forces/
