As the world reflects on the 80 years since the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, a new era of heightened tensions raises concerns about the future of nuclear weapons.
The recent declaration of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran seems to only underscore the precariousness of global peace.
Surprisingly, few could have imagined that since 1945, no nuclear weapon would be unleashed on a civilian population.
In the wake of the Cold War, despite numerous crises, the logic of deterrence has held firm, preventing nuclear powers from engaging in direct conflicts.
Proxy wars have ensued instead, resulting in significant loss of life across various regions, from Southeast Asia to the Middle East.
However, the intricate dynamics of both 20th and 21st-century politics suggest a growing interest in nuclear weapons among nations that currently do not possess them.
The volatile ambitions of states like Iran and the unpredictable actions of various administrations, particularly that of President Donald Trump, have intensified this desire.
Among the 195 member states of the United Nations, only nine are recognized nuclear powers, including the U.S., Russia, and China.
Countries like Germany, Japan, and South Korea have historically shown restraint in nuclear ambitions, largely due to their reliance on the American nuclear umbrella.
With President Trump’s unpredictable approach to alliances, the rationale for these nations to reconsider their non-nuclear stance is growing.
Furthermore, Macron’s embrace of French nuclear independence and similar movements in the U.K. indicate a shift in how traditional allies view American nuclear assurances.
For leaders strategizing in countries like Venezuela, the alternatives are stark.
Under Nicolás Maduro, the lessons drawn from the fall of regimes in Iraq, Ukraine, Libya, and Syria highlight the potential risks of lacking nuclear capabilities.
North Korea’s survival amidst global tensions showcases the deterrent effect of its nuclear arsenal.
Such considerations compel leaders like Maduro to contemplate the unpredictable nature of U.S. foreign policy that could undermine their positions.
In regions like the Middle East and East Asia, the drive for nuclear capabilities seems to heighten further, particularly because of Iran’s persistent nuclear aspirations.
With ongoing discussions surrounding a potential nuclear deal involving Saudi Arabia and the U.S., the stakes remain high.
Despite recent events affecting Iran’s nuclear program, the fundamental knowledge and ambition to build a nuclear sector remain entrenched in Iranian society.
For Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, the need for a nuclear program—both for deterrence and future power considerations—is compelling.
As nations strategize, the potential ripple effects of American policies become increasingly apparent.
Many view the existence of nuclear weapons as a safeguard against foreign intervention, leading to an arms race that could exceed any previously experienced tensions.
Historically, efforts for nuclear non-proliferation have faced challenges but have managed to avert widespread nuclear arms development—until now.
The collapse of agreements like the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) during Trump’s presidency disrupted a fragile balance and left significant uncertainty in its wake.
Where the JCPOA aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the international response to its collapse has varied widely, creating an atmosphere ripe for further proliferation.
While critics of the JCPOA frequently cited concerns over potential cheating by Iran, the data indicated compliance, underscoring the complexities of nuclear diplomacy.
The absence of rigorous oversight and the inability to return to an agreement signal a significant setback for global nuclear stability.
As the United States grapples with its strategic posture in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape, uncertainty reigns.
Whether regarding commitments in regions like East Asia or the Middle East, traditional alliances face challenges that could prompt nations to reassess their nuclear policies.
In conclusion, the specter of nuclear weapons looms larger today than it has for decades, with many leaders contemplating their strategic advantages.
This environment, marked by rising tensions and historical precedents, creates a climate where the pursuit of nuclear weapons may soon seem essential to national security.
The echoes of the past heighten the urgency; as the world looks back on eight decades of tenuous nuclear peace, the future appears increasingly uncertain.
image source from：washingtonmonthly
