The race for the Republican nomination for Texas attorney general is heating up as State Senator Joan Huffman has officially declared her candidacy, joining a competitive field that includes Senator Mayes Middleton and former U.S. Assistant Attorney General Aaron Reitz.
Political consultant Bill Miller has indicated that the introduction of Huffman into the primary significantly raises the likelihood of a runoff in the March 2026 election.
“Both Huffman and Middleton are from the Houston metroplex, which is both a strength and a challenge for them,” Miller noted.
While Greater Houston is rich in potential voters, both candidates will need to establish their presence in other crucial regions of Texas, especially rural areas in West Texas.
Miller pointed out, “The state is red because of rural Texas.”
Each candidate brings distinct advantages to the race. Reitz’s connections to current Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is also a significant figure in the upcoming Senate race against Senator John Cornyn, give him a solid foundation. Miller emphasized that Reitz is likely to highlight his relationships with both Paxton and President Donald Trump to appeal to primary voters who are loyal to these figures.
In contrast, Middleton possesses substantial financial resources as a self-made oil and gas businessman. He has committed to potentially investing up to $25 million of his own money into his campaign, which could provide him with a considerable edge in a high-stakes election.
“Middleton is a strong conservative and will lean on his voting record as a Senator to bolster his credibility,” Miller remarked. “He has aligned closely with party leadership, making him a familiar choice for many Republican voters.”
Huffman, on the other hand, enters the race with an extensive legal background. Having previously served as an assistant district attorney and an elected state district court judge, her experience is set to play a significant role in her campaign.
Miller commented, “Experience is going to be a central theme throughout this race. The attorney general’s office frequently engages in litigation both against state issues and the federal government, a role that requires sound judgment and legal expertise.”
While Reitz may aim to leverage his ties with Paxton and a softer connection to Trump, Huffman can showcase her political relationship with Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, which some insiders believe could resonate more with the Republican base than Middleton’s connections.
“Huffman’s position as Senate finance chair gives her a unique advantage,” Miller explained. “This role not only puts her closely aligned with the lieutenant governor but also involves her in significant budgetary decisions for the state.”
As the state finance chair, she plays a critical role in determining how state funds are allocated, which can be a pivotal talking point when addressing voters who are impacted by these decisions.
With such a dynamic race unfolding, the likelihood of a decisive winner in the primary remains uncertain. Miller noted that competition in Republican primaries has been infrequent in recent years, with significant races both for the Senate and the attorney general position shaping up.
“The behavior of the candidates and the level of aggressiveness in their campaigns will be essential to watch,” he stated. “Given current political trends, it’s reasonable to anticipate a fiercely competitive and contentious atmosphere.”
Should no candidate clinch over 50% of the vote in the initial primary, the top two candidates will face off in a runoff election, a scenario Miller sees as highly likely.
“It’s essential to frame this race not as something that will be resolved on Election Day, but as a contest that will more likely culminate in a runoff,” he explained. “The real question now is who will emerge to contest against who in that subsequent round.”
As the primaries draw closer, all eyes will be on how these three candidates establish their campaigns and garner support across the diverse electorate of Texas.
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