In a significant upset, Zohran Mamdani has secured the Democratic nomination for mayor of New York City, garnering attention for his campaign focused on addressing the city’s affordability crisis. His ambitious pledge to provide free bus transit for all New Yorkers is drawing both support and skepticism regarding its feasibility and funding.
Mamdani believes that the high cost of public transit is a significant burden, especially for lower-income families who rely on the bus system. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) currently oversees the city’s bus network, which sees over a million rides on a typical weekday, with fare prices of $2.90 becoming a focal point in discussions about access and equity.
Advocacy groups, such as Riders Alliance, support Mamdani’s vision, emphasizing that public transit should be affordable for everyone. “All New Yorkers deserve to afford public transit — it’s our way of life,” stated Danny Pearlstein, the group’s director of policy and communications. The campaign highlights the often-overlooked needs of bus riders in a city where the subway system often dominates the narrative.
While there is a clear benefit to eliminating bus fares for families on fixed incomes, such a move would require substantial funding to compensate for the losses incurred by the MTA. Financial estimates from the NYC Independent Budget Office indicate that removing fares could result in a loss of about $652 million annually for the agency, with potential additional losses if even a small percentage of subway passengers switch to bus services.
Adie Tomer, a senior fellow at Brookings Metro, explained the financial implications further: “Making buses free creates new holes in the MTA budget that have to be filled from other sources.”
Mamdani proposes raising corporate taxes and instating a new 2% income tax on city residents earning over $1 million annually to cover the costs associated with his free bus initiative. However, Governor Kathy Hochul has previously expressed opposition to increasing taxes, raising concerns about Mamdani’s ability to secure the necessary funding from state and local lawmakers.
The MTA is already grappling with financial challenges following a spike in fare evasion post-pandemic. With buses temporarily free during the pandemic, fare evasion rates climbed significantly, hitting about 44% in early 2023. Despite these challenges, MTA reports projected farebox revenue from buses at $800 million in 2024, with expectations for growth in subsequent years.
Mamdani’s proposal, if implemented, has the potential to substantially impact the MTA’s budget. The agency is currently working on a massive $68 billion multiyear capital investment program aimed at upgrading its aging transit infrastructure, heavily dependent on federal funding.
The ability to adopt a free bus system lies not only with the mayoral administration but also within the jurisdiction of the MTA and Governor Hochul. While there is theoretical support among some state lawmakers for the idea of free buses, the practical challenge remains to identify a sustainable source of funding.
MTA CEO Janno Lieber recently commented on the discussion surrounding Mamdani’s proposal, suggesting the need for a more comprehensive approach to improving transit affordability and accessibility.
Critics from various political spectrums argue that the potential benefits of free transit need to be weighed against the costs and the priorities for investing in enhanced transit services. They suggest that making only bus services free might misdirect passengers who would be better served by the existing subway network. Some advocate instead for expanding programs such as “Fair Fares,” which offers reduced fares for low-income riders in New York City.
Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee for mayor, has challenged Mamdani’s promises, arguing that existing programs like Fair Fares adequately assist those in need without imposing further tax burdens or alienating businesses.
Mamdani points to successful implementations of free transit in other cities as a potential model for New York. Kansas City notably became the first major U.S. city to eliminate bus fares in 2020, successfully doing so with a modest cost of about $9 million. Other cities, such as Boston, have also initiated federally funded fare-free pilot programs, although the long-term viability of such initiatives is questioned as pandemic-era finances continue to dwindle.
Globally, many European cities have successfully integrated fare-free transit systems, but these models often rely on substantial public investment from local governments willing to sustain such programs. Estonia’s experiment with free buses was halted after a few years due to funding constraints, and Luxembourg’s countrywide initiative may not translate directly to the larger population and budgetary environment of New York City.
Looking back at recent attempts at fare-free transit in New York, a pilot program in 2023 offered free bus rides on select routes but was not renewed after its expiration. While the pilot did lead to significant increases in ridership, it also caused operational challenges, including longer wait times and decreased bus speeds.
Experts speculate that creating a completely fare-free bus system could paradoxically lead to worse service due to increased congestion and demand.
During the pilot program, the MTA reported a loss of about $10.8 million in farebox revenue across the affected routes, alongside reduced ridership on nearby paid bus lines.
The debate around Mamdani’s free bus proposal encapsulates a broader conversation about public transit’s future, equity in transportation access, and city funding priorities. With New Yorkers set to vote in November, the implications of these proposals will be pivotal in shaping the city’s public transportation landscape in the years to come.
Ultimately, whether Mamdani’s ambitious promise can translate into a practical and funded policy will remain a central point of discussion in the mayoral race and beyond.
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