On Sunday, a planned sixth meeting between the United States and Iran to negotiate limits on Iran’s nuclear capabilities was abruptly canceled due to heightened military tensions in the region.
The cancellation followed Israel’s extensive military operation against Iran, which commenced in the early hours of the previous day. This operation involved airstrikes targeting locations across at least 12 provinces, including the capital city, Tehran, and the key northern hub of Tabriz.
Israeli forces struck various targets, including suspected nuclear facilities, air defense systems, and residences of high-ranking military officials. Reports from Iranian state media indicated the loss of several top commanders within the Islamic Revolutionary Guards.
The current conflict between Israel and Iran raises concerns that the United States could be drawn into the fray. Immediate repercussions include a significant spike in oil prices, translating to increased costs for American consumers at the fuel pump.
Moreover, there is growing speculation about the potential mobilization of military personnel from the San Diego area. Navy vessels, including the San Diego-based USS Carl Vinson, have already been deployed to assist Israel in intercepting Iranian missiles that were launched in response to the strikes.
The roots of this escalating conflict can be traced back to policy decisions made during President Donald Trump’s administration, particularly his withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2017. Trump’s presidency was marked by a persistent military posture aimed at deterring Iran, almost escalating to outright war in 2020 after the assassination of a prominent Iranian general.
Following the attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, a commitment to deploying forces to the Middle East has been maintained by both the Trump and Biden administrations. As part of this strategy, the USS Carl Vinson is currently operating in the Arabian Sea, accompanied by a squadron of F-35C strike aircraft and helicopter units from San Diego.
While carrier strike group deployments are typically routine maneuvers, the current geopolitical landscape has significantly raised the stakes, with the risk of Iranian targeting of U.S. forces now at an unprecedented level. An attack on American assets could prompt an increased military response and further U.S. presence in the region.
Historically, San Diego-based forces have played a crucial role in deterring Iranian aggression. During an April 2024 incident, American Navy destroyers were instrumental in air defense when Iran launched 300 drones and missiles against Israel.
Given that Israel relies heavily on American-made military equipment, the U.S. is increasingly seen as a participant in a protracted, albeit undeclared, conflict with Iran. This involvement places American forces operating in the Middle East at a higher risk of retaliation.
The impact of these international conflicts has profoundly shaped the San Diego community, bringing in veterans who have served multiple tours in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as a generation of refugees fleeing those wars. The recent escalation has the potential to evolve into the third major American military engagement in the Middle East since the 1990 invasion of Kuwait.
Ibrahim Al-Marashi, an associate professor of history at Cal State San Marcos, and a visiting scholar at University of San Diego and San Diego State University, provided insights into the historical context surrounding these events.
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