GEORGIA — After just a few short months of La Niña conditions, forecasters on Thursday announced that this past winter’s weather phenomenon has come to an end.
According to the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the combination of below-average temperatures weakening in the central Pacific Ocean and the westward expansion of very warm water in the far eastern Pacific contributed to the dissipation of La Niña’s cooler surface temperatures.
Looking ahead, forecasters predict that conditions will remain neutral in the Northern Hemisphere, including Georgia, through this fall.
‘ENSO-neutral’ signifies that neither El Niño nor La Niña are currently in effect, resulting in less predictable global seasonal conditions, as mentioned by forecasters in a blog post.
In October 2024, there had been predictions of La Niña developing in the fall, with expectations of it being a weak event.
Ultimately, La Niña developed in January when below-average sea surface temperatures were recorded in the Pacific.
This year’s La Niña was anticipated to bring above-normal temperatures and below-normal rain to Georgia.
The year began with two snowstorms that significantly impacted the Peach State, leading to the shutdown of schools, businesses, and air travel.
These conditions gradually transitioned to thunderstorms and tornado activity.
Forecasters indicated that ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to persist through the summer, which could lead to unpredictable weather patterns for Georgians.
‘Without an El Niño or La Niña signal present, other, less predictable, climatic factors will govern fall, winter, and spring weather conditions,’ stated Bill Patzert, a climatologist previously with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, in a NASA blog post.
The University of Georgia has reported that a second La Niña may return in the late fall; however, forecasting these conditions far in advance remains challenging due to the uncertainty of spring weather patterns.
Without a strong El Niño or La Niña influence, the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season — set to start on June 1 — faces equal odds regarding its activity level around its peak, which typically occurs from mid-August to mid-October, as pointed out by CNN.
Forecasters have noted that chances for either El Niño or La Niña may increase later in the year, with La Niña’s likelihood approximately double that of El Niño.
Despite this, neutral conditions are still projected to have the highest probability through early winter.
The neutral weather pattern implies that hurricane season in the East will rely on monthly and weekly fluctuations in weather patterns that cannot be reliably predicted well in advance.
The Washington Post reported that early predictions of a vigorous Atlantic hurricane season carry more uncertainty than usual.
During a neutral summer, an above-normal number of named tropical storms could emerge in the Atlantic, according to UGA.
‘Of course, we don’t know where those storms will go at this point, so we will be watching and waiting as we head for the official start of the season on June 1,’ UGA officials stated.
image source from：https://patch.com/georgia/atlanta/winters-weak-la-nia-over-what-means-ga
